Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
